This website shows the number of daily new cases and deaths of Covid-19 by country, and tries to predict them with an algorithm (last update: March 04, 2021).

The curves are displayed:

  • per million inhabitants (in order to compare the countries)
  • in a logarithmic manner, which means that each additional unit on the y-axis makes the number 10 times bigger.
  • with an average on the 7 last days (to compensate missing figures from the week-end for instance)
In order to make predictions, their trends are compared to:
  • an increasing exponential curve (when it doesn't look flat yet, see explanation here),
  • or an increasing logistic curve (when it starts to flatten)
  • or a decreasing logistic, exponential or linear curve (when the peak seems behind),
  • or a piecewise linear curve in the logarithmic scale, when the peak is passed, but the initial post-peak decrease trend has changed (for instance when there is a "surge")
The model with the smallest error is chosen. Prediction is thus made (hoping that the numbers are overrated...), and the prediction error is indicated. Only countries with more than 1000 cases are shown. Please note that the predictions are made by an algorithm: they are only to be considered as a trend, and the algorithm can be mistaken.

France
France New Cases New Deaths
Last update 11533 150
Prediction in 15 days 3768 184
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 10.2% 15.3%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
United States of America
United States of America New Cases New Deaths
Last update 56780 1924
Prediction in 15 days 197622 1424
Prediction model Logistics LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 5.4% 5.8%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
United kingdom
United kingdom New Cases New Deaths
Last update 6411 343
Prediction in 15 days 3249 739
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 5.1% 11.9%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Italy
Italy New Cases New Deaths
Last update 17937 484
Prediction in 15 days 7738 3598
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 4.0% 8.9%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Belgium
Belgium New Cases New Deaths
Last update 2050 35
Prediction in 15 days 1138 20
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 8.0% 17.1%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Germany
Germany New Cases New Deaths
Last update 16362 188
Prediction in 15 days 59888 1533
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 4.5% 18.1%
Peak reached? No No
Spain
Spain New Cases New Deaths
Last update 0 0
Prediction in 15 days 10427 824
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit3
Error in prediction 28.2% 44.4%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Brazil
Brazil New Cases New Deaths
Last update 21825 279
Prediction in 15 days 41195 356
Prediction model Logistics Logistics + Exponential
Error in prediction 8.4% 6.2%
Peak reached? No Yes
India
India New Cases New Deaths
Last update 27071 336
Prediction in 15 days 24661 314
Prediction model Logistics + Exponential Logistics + Exponential
Error in prediction 2.3% 5.4%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Bolivia
Bolivia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 790 37
Prediction in 15 days 465 16
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 6.2% 12.9%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Nepal
Nepal New Cases New Deaths
Last update 78 0
Prediction in 15 days 50 0
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 5.1% 31.8%
Peak reached? Yes No
Austria
Austria New Cases New Deaths
Last update 1920 31
Prediction in 15 days 947 15
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 6.0% 21.5%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Morocco
Morocco New Cases New Deaths
Last update 2012 35
Prediction in 15 days 5719 21
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr)
Error in prediction 5.9% 25.1%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
South Africa
South Africa New Cases New Deaths
Last update 856 194
Prediction in 15 days 337 54
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 4.0% 10.0%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Switzerland
Switzerland New Cases New Deaths
Last update 0 0
Prediction in 15 days 2171 621
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 22.3% 50.1%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Ukraine
Ukraine New Cases New Deaths
Last update 5460 170
Prediction in 15 days 10279 213
Prediction model Logistics Logistics
Error in prediction 10.2% 11.5%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Poland
Poland New Cases New Deaths
Last update 8976 188
Prediction in 15 days 27571 285
Prediction model Exponential LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 13.9% 14.4%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Bangladesh
Bangladesh New Cases New Deaths
Last update 1355 32
Prediction in 15 days 1280 40
Prediction model Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr) LogPiecewiseLinearFit3
Error in prediction 2.9% 8.0%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Mexico
Mexico New Cases New Deaths
Last update 7913 1035
Prediction in 15 days 3564 0
Prediction model Logistics + Exponential Logistics + Linear
Error in prediction 7.7% 14.7%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Jordan
Jordan New Cases New Deaths
Last update 2339 30
Prediction in 15 days 2379 17
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr)
Error in prediction 13.3% 8.4%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Peru
Peru New Cases New Deaths
Last update 1928 68
Prediction in 15 days 986 136
Prediction model Logistics + Exponential Exponential
Error in prediction 7.2% 21.6%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Portugal
Portugal New Cases New Deaths
Last update 4044 98
Prediction in 15 days 2067 72
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 5.6% 16.5%
Peak reached? Yes No
Philippines
Philippines New Cases New Deaths
Last update 2061 47
Prediction in 15 days 2070 35
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit3 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 4.5% 21.9%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Colombia
Colombia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 8702 187
Prediction in 15 days 7714 146
Prediction model Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr) Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr)
Error in prediction 5.9% 8.9%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Malaysia
Malaysia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 1555 6
Prediction in 15 days 4702 4
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr)
Error in prediction 9.0% 43.5%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Ecuador
Ecuador New Cases New Deaths
Last update 358 18
Prediction in 15 days 1032 49
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit3
Error in prediction 14.5% 28.7%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Turkey
Turkey New Cases New Deaths
Last update 29136 222
Prediction in 15 days 147173 244
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 2.9% 5.6%
Peak reached? No No
Netherlands
Netherlands New Cases New Deaths
Last update 9868 29
Prediction in 15 days 4319 34
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 3.7% 18.9%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Czechia
Czechia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 2000 74
Prediction in 15 days 9468 56
Prediction model Logistics LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 19.5% 21.1%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Canada
Canada New Cases New Deaths
Last update 5891 81
Prediction in 15 days 11354 245
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit3 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 5.5% 14.1%
Peak reached? No Yes
Romania
Romania New Cases New Deaths
Last update 4435 121
Prediction in 15 days 3592 211
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit3
Error in prediction 4.5% 8.5%
Peak reached? Yes No
Israel
Israel New Cases New Deaths
Last update 5260 30
Prediction in 15 days 4636 34
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 8.7% 25.1%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Argentina
Argentina New Cases New Deaths
Last update 3558 98
Prediction in 15 days 3795 69
Prediction model Logistics + Exponential Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr)
Error in prediction 7.5% 10.7%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Serbia
Serbia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 4995 56
Prediction in 15 days 47174 249
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit3 LogPiecewiseLinearFit3
Error in prediction 10.1% 41.2%
Peak reached? No No
Iran
Iran New Cases New Deaths
Last update 8495 86
Prediction in 15 days 9992 36
Prediction model Logistics LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 4.5% 5.1%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Panama
Panama New Cases New Deaths
Last update 2422 25
Prediction in 15 days 3000 23
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit3 LogPiecewiseLinearFit3
Error in prediction 3.6% 14.5%
Peak reached? No Yes
Sweden
Sweden New Cases New Deaths
Last update 0 0
Prediction in 15 days 14576 0
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit3 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 8.4% 16.2%
Peak reached? No Yes
Japan
Japan New Cases New Deaths
Last update 922 65
Prediction in 15 days 3345 113
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 10.1% 26.8%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Georgia
Georgia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 461 12
Prediction in 15 days 76 4
Prediction model Logistics + Exponential Logistics + Exponential
Error in prediction 17.8% 9.2%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Iraq
Iraq New Cases New Deaths
Last update 1012 14
Prediction in 15 days 983 26
Prediction model Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr) Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr)
Error in prediction 7.2% 8.3%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Chile
Chile New Cases New Deaths
Last update 2742 24
Prediction in 15 days 5571 100
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 3.8% 14.4%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Hungary
Hungary New Cases New Deaths
Last update 3470 165
Prediction in 15 days 10870 214
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 9.9% 16.4%
Peak reached? Yes No
Lebanon
Lebanon New Cases New Deaths
Last update 3098 62
Prediction in 15 days 1480 83
Prediction model Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr) Logistics
Error in prediction 15.2% 23.5%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 302 5
Prediction in 15 days 527 3
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit3 Logistics(Incr) + Logistics(Decr)
Error in prediction 3.9% 10.1%
Peak reached? Yes Yes
Bulgaria
Bulgaria New Cases New Deaths
Last update 497 62
Prediction in 15 days 1830 60
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 11.1% 28.7%
Peak reached? Yes No
Indonesia
Indonesia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 6189 166
Prediction in 15 days 5492 134
Prediction model Logistics Logistics
Error in prediction 3.6% 8.8%
Peak reached? No No
Belarus
Belarus New Cases New Deaths
Last update 1961 9
Prediction in 15 days 3405 6
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit3 LogPiecewiseLinearFit4
Error in prediction 4.1% 15.6%
Peak reached? No No
Slovakia
Slovakia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 5897 53
Prediction in 15 days 1392 26
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 Logistics
Error in prediction 17.8% 36.2%
Peak reached? No No
Russia
Russia New Cases New Deaths
Last update 28080 488
Prediction in 15 days 46095 816
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit3 LogPiecewiseLinearFit3
Error in prediction 1.3% 5.4%
Peak reached? No No
Pakistan
Pakistan New Cases New Deaths
Last update 2362 36
Prediction in 15 days 6400 117
Prediction model LogPiecewiseLinearFit4 LogPiecewiseLinearFit3
Error in prediction 6.9% 14.6%
Peak reached? Yes Yes